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Using Geospatial Data to Assess How Climate Change May Affect Land Suitability for Agriculture Production
1K. KC, 2L. Hannah, 2P. Roehrdanz, 2C. Donatti, 1E. Fraser, 1A. Berg, 2L. Saenz, 2T. M. Wright, 3R. J. Hijmans, 4M. Mulligan
1. Department of Geography, University of Guelph, Guelph, Canada
2. The Betty and Gordon Moore Center for Science, Conservation International, Arlington, VA, USA
3. Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California Davis, USA
4. Department of Geography, Kings College London, UK

Finding solutions to the challenge of sustainably feeding the world’s growing population is a pressing research need that cuts across many disciplines including using geospatial data. One possible area could be developing agricultural frontiers. Frontiers are defined as land that is currently not cultivated but that may become suitable for agriculture under climate change. Climate change may drive large-scale geographic shifts in agriculture, including expansion in cultivation at the thermal and precipitation limits of crop tolerance. This development may help humanity to maintain global food security due to population growth. However, developing agricultural frontiers will have significant land use impacts that may have negative environmental consequences such as greenhouse gas emissions and biodiversity loss. In this light, this paper examines the extent and location of potential agricultural frontiers and expected negative environmental consequences of cultivating them using geospatial (climate, soils and terrain) data. Preliminary results shows that about 9.1 million km2 of the planet’s surface globally may become suitable for agriculture by 2100 due to climate change. Cultivating these frontiers could lead to the release of up to 177 Gt of carbon. Frontier areas also intersect forests and wetlands with at 19 separate global biodiversity hotspots. Sound planning and management of climate-driven agricultural frontiers can help reduce significant impacts on people, ecosystems and the climate system while expanding productive agricultural land.

Keyword: Geospatial data, agricultural frontier, climate change, food security, land use change, soil carbon, habitat loss, suitability mapping
K. Kc    L. Hannah    P. Roehrdanz    C. Donatti    E. Fraser    A. Berg    L. Saenz    T. M. Wright    R. J. Hijmans    M. Mulligan    Geospatial Data    Oral    2018